Europe's largest asset manager has reaffirmed its bullish gold outlook — even as prices pull back from January highs. Amundi's Lorenzo Portelli argues the recent sell-off is driven by positioning, not fundamentals, and the structural case for gold has never been stronger.
Despite a sharp 15% correction from its January 2026 peak, gold retains a credible path toward $5,500 per ounce within the next 12 months, according to Lorenzo Portelli, Head of Cross-Asset Strategy and Research at Amundi Investment Institute.
The Sell-Off Is About Positioning, Not Fundamentals
Portelli is unequivocal: the recent decline is a market-structure phenomenon, not a reflection of deteriorating fundamentals. In particular, he points to the unwinding of ETF positions that had accumulated through March.
"Gold has undergone a meaningful sell-off in recent weeks, but we believe the move has been driven more by a repricing of short-term macro fears."
— Lorenzo Portelli, Amundi Investment Institute
Three Structural Pillars Underpin the $5,500 Target
Central Bank Demand Remains Elevated
Emerging market central banks continue diversifying reserves away from traditional currencies, particularly the U.S. dollar.
Mine Supply Cannot Meet Long-Term Demand
Structural supply constraints mean new gold production is unlikely to keep pace with rising global demand.
Rising Global Debt Reinforces Hard Asset Demand
Ballooning sovereign and private leverage worldwide is becoming an increasingly important backdrop for gold.
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